The OSCC Predicted Floor Values for T-Bond Options or "Quotes"

In order for any option strategy to work it must be based on what is happening on the floor now, NOT what happened 5 minutes or an hour ago. We provide as close to real time as we can, these predicted values. Since all these values are calculated by OSCC, they are therefore our copyrighted "Quotes".

NOTE: It takes about 0.6 seconds for the program to run the necessary calculations and about a minute to upload the data to the web, so the OSCC Quotes are actually delayed by a short time. If the OSCC Quotes quits updating please bear with us. Just keep checking and we will to be back up as soon as possible. Occasionally our modem does not connect and we miss one or two uploads. The next refresh should come on time.

What is the OSCC Option Model Price?
The basic program when run as close to real time as possible allows us to use its parameters to make a prediction at the current moment as to what the estimated price of the next option that trades will be. It is our opinion that this is the "Average Floor Trader Value" on the floor (see definition). These prices are constantly updated and totally recalculated every time an option or the underlying future trades and pinpoints our single price. OPTION SERVICES for COMMODITIES, CORPORATION calls this indicated price, the OSCC FLOOR VALUE (OSCCFV) or more directly the "The OSCC Quote"

The program that uses these formulas is very quick and normally recalculates the OSCC Quote on over 100 Put and Call options in less than 0.6 seconds. At the same time it also compares the values in one monthly contract to those in another month for use in an Over and Under Valued Option List. Such as comparing September 114 Call T-Bond Options with December 108 Put T-Bonds Options. It also records all data received and created for use in projecting the direction of option values.

What is the OSCC Floor Value or "Quote"?
Once you know what the future is going to do, what strategy you are going to use, based on where the futures and option premium are and the direction each of these two are headed, you need to place an order quickly. All the floor traders are making "BID-ASK" offers across the pit constantly. One side of that offer is each floor traders own holding value. If a person could get an instantaneous average you would have an "Average Floor Trader Value". We feel that the OSCC Quote represents that value as close as possible. We therefore, surmise that the other side of the "BID-ASK" offer or the resulting transaction is either above or below this "Average Floor Trader Value". Thus using the OSCC Quote to predict this value as accurately as possible is extremely useful.

Thus a trader, with advice of a broker, who has the OSCC Quote can use it as an indicator for one side of their transaction. We know that a trade will occur at one or more ticks above or below the floor traders price. Thus predicting their price is critical and knowing the percentage of trades that occur at various spreads from that price is useful for determining the best price to trade at or what price to use to get in or out quickly. Experience and testing with advice of a broker who can help select the type of order to test, will benefit and teach traders how good of a guideline the OSCC Quote is and what spreads to use before calling their broker for an actual floor quote.

We feel that the OSCC Quote is a fair representation of this final price. Despite its high accuracy, this indicator is still only a mathematical estimate based on theory whose accuracy is expressed as a percentage. Individuals must form their own opinion of the OSCCFV.

Note of Caution:

We check the formula parameters with the closing prices each night. However, the closing prices sometimes vary from a normal pattern which means we have to use our best judgment to get the best fit with the various patterns at various strike prices that show up on different days. We see these inconsistencies in our charts when we check the parameters of the formulas and they can affect program accuracy. The volume of interrelated and independent parameters run by the program allows it to work around these inconsistencies mostly on its own. However, we sometimes need to manually adjust them to help the program maintain as much accuracy as possible.

Currently Updated OSCC Quotes Temporarily suspended.

.Definitions:
Starts at 7:22. The program needs a few minutes at startup to understand what the floor is doing today.
SP: Strike Price
SYM: I have now replaced CG and PG with Call and Put
OSCCFV or OSCC: This is our current estimate of the value of that option on the floor within last update.
Statistics: See the Accuracy page for an explanation.

How to use this page.
Determine what option you are going to trade and what price you want with your brokers advice. When it gets close to that price call your broker for a floor quote or ask him if you should place a market order.

If want to trade off this data, work with your broker to determine the accuracy of the data. Then you can use this OSCC Quote to trade on your own. Always note however that the accuracy statistics on the side shows our estimate may not predict your actual traded price.

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